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ANALISIS CONDICIONES QUINIELA: FIGURAS (nº 1, nº X y nº 2)

Tabla con el numero de FIGURAS (nº de 1, nº de X, nº de 2) que han salido en las combinaciones ganadoras de las quinielas celebradas desde 1970, comparandolos con el numero de FIGURAS que han salido en las 10 ultimas temporadas y con el numero de FIGURAS que aparecen en las 4,782,969 combinaciones posibles (14 triples).

1970-2013
1,864 quinielas
2004-2013
380 quinielas
14 Triples
4,782,969 Apuestas
FigurasNº Quinielas% Quinielas FigurasNº Quinielas% Quinielas FigurasNº Apuestas% Apuestas
0-0-1400.00000% 0-0-1400.00000% 0-0-1410.00002%
0-1-1300.00000% 0-1-1300.00000% 0-1-13140.00029%
0-2-1200.00000% 0-2-1200.00000% 0-2-12910.00190%
0-3-1100.00000% 0-3-1100.00000% 0-3-113640.00761%
0-4-1000.00000% 0-4-1000.00000% 0-4-101,0010.02093%
0-5-900.00000% 0-5-900.00000% 0-5-92,0020.04186%
0-6-800.00000% 0-6-800.00000% 0-6-83,0030.06279%
0-7-700.00000% 0-7-700.00000% 0-7-73,4320.07175%
0-8-610.05365% 0-8-600.00000% 0-8-63,0030.06279%
0-9-500.00000% 0-9-500.00000% 0-9-52,0020.04186%
0-10-400.00000% 0-10-400.00000% 0-10-41,0010.02093%
0-11-300.00000% 0-11-300.00000% 0-11-33640.00761%
0-12-200.00000% 0-12-200.00000% 0-12-2910.00190%
0-13-100.00000% 0-13-100.00000% 0-13-1140.00029%
0-14-000.00000% 0-14-000.00000% 0-14-010.00002%
1-0-1300.00000% 1-0-1300.00000% 1-0-13140.00029%
1-1-1200.00000% 1-1-1200.00000% 1-1-121820.00381%
1-2-1100.00000% 1-2-1100.00000% 1-2-111,0920.02283%
1-3-1000.00000% 1-3-1000.00000% 1-3-104,0040.08371%
1-4-900.00000% 1-4-900.00000% 1-4-910,0100.20928%
1-5-810.05365% 1-5-800.00000% 1-5-818,0180.37671%
1-6-700.00000% 1-6-700.00000% 1-6-724,0240.50228%
1-7-600.00000% 1-7-600.00000% 1-7-624,0240.50228%
1-8-510.05365% 1-8-510.26316% 1-8-518,0180.37671%
1-9-400.00000% 1-9-400.00000% 1-9-410,0100.20928%
1-10-300.00000% 1-10-300.00000% 1-10-34,0040.08371%
1-11-200.00000% 1-11-200.00000% 1-11-21,0920.02283%
1-12-100.00000% 1-12-100.00000% 1-12-11820.00381%
1-13-000.00000% 1-13-000.00000% 1-13-0140.00029%
2-0-1200.00000% 2-0-1200.00000% 2-0-12910.00190%
2-1-1100.00000% 2-1-1100.00000% 2-1-111,0920.02283%
2-2-1000.00000% 2-2-1000.00000% 2-2-106,0060.12557%
2-3-900.00000% 2-3-900.00000% 2-3-920,0200.41857%
2-4-810.05365% 2-4-800.00000% 2-4-845,0450.94178%
2-5-700.00000% 2-5-700.00000% 2-5-772,0721.50685%
2-6-610.05365% 2-6-600.00000% 2-6-684,0841.75799%
2-7-500.00000% 2-7-500.00000% 2-7-572,0721.50685%
2-8-420.10730% 2-8-410.26316% 2-8-445,0450.94178%
2-9-310.05365% 2-9-300.00000% 2-9-320,0200.41857%
2-10-200.00000% 2-10-200.00000% 2-10-26,0060.12557%
2-11-100.00000% 2-11-100.00000% 2-11-11,0920.02283%
2-12-000.00000% 2-12-000.00000% 2-12-0910.00190%
3-0-1100.00000% 3-0-1100.00000% 3-0-113640.00761%
3-1-1000.00000% 3-1-1000.00000% 3-1-104,0040.08371%
3-2-910.05365% 3-2-900.00000% 3-2-920,0200.41857%
3-3-820.10730% 3-3-800.00000% 3-3-860,0601.25571%
3-4-760.32189% 3-4-730.78947% 3-4-7120,1202.51141%
3-5-620.10730% 3-5-600.00000% 3-5-6168,1683.51598%
3-6-5100.53648% 3-6-541.05263% 3-6-5168,1683.51598%
3-7-470.37554% 3-7-420.52632% 3-7-4120,1202.51141%
3-8-330.16094% 3-8-320.52632% 3-8-360,0601.25571%
3-9-220.10730% 3-9-200.00000% 3-9-220,0200.41857%
3-10-110.05365% 3-10-100.00000% 3-10-14,0040.08371%
3-11-000.00000% 3-11-000.00000% 3-11-03640.00761%
4-0-1000.00000% 4-0-1000.00000% 4-0-101,0010.02093%
4-1-900.00000% 4-1-900.00000% 4-1-910,0100.20928%
4-2-870.37554% 4-2-830.78947% 4-2-845,0450.94178%
4-3-7130.69742% 4-3-751.31579% 4-3-7120,1202.51141%
4-4-6160.85837% 4-4-630.78947% 4-4-6210,2104.39497%
4-5-5321.71674% 4-5-5133.42105% 4-5-5252,2525.27396%
4-6-4281.50215% 4-6-492.36842% 4-6-4210,2104.39497%
4-7-3201.07296% 4-7-361.57895% 4-7-3120,1202.51141%
4-8-2100.53648% 4-8-230.78947% 4-8-245,0450.94178%
4-9-140.21459% 4-9-100.00000% 4-9-110,0100.20928%
4-10-010.05365% 4-10-000.00000% 4-10-01,0010.02093%
5-0-900.00000% 5-0-900.00000% 5-0-92,0020.04186%
5-1-820.10730% 5-1-800.00000% 5-1-818,0180.37671%
5-2-7180.96567% 5-2-782.10526% 5-2-772,0721.50685%
5-3-6241.28755% 5-3-682.10526% 5-3-6168,1683.51598%
5-4-5522.78970% 5-4-5112.89474% 5-4-5252,2525.27396%
5-5-4583.11159% 5-5-4225.78947% 5-5-4252,2525.27396%
5-6-3502.68240% 5-6-371.84211% 5-6-3168,1683.51598%
5-7-2150.80472% 5-7-230.78947% 5-7-272,0721.50685%
5-8-1130.69742% 5-8-100.00000% 5-8-118,0180.37671%
5-9-020.10730% 5-9-010.26316% 5-9-02,0020.04186%
6-0-840.21459% 6-0-820.52632% 6-0-83,0030.06279%
6-1-760.32189% 6-1-720.52632% 6-1-724,0240.50228%
6-2-6241.28755% 6-2-651.31579% 6-2-684,0841.75799%
6-3-5623.32618% 6-3-5184.73684% 6-3-5168,1683.51598%
6-4-4814.34549% 6-4-4256.57895% 6-4-4210,2104.39497%
6-5-3754.02361% 6-5-3174.47368% 6-5-3168,1683.51598%
6-6-2472.52146% 6-6-2164.21053% 6-6-284,0841.75799%
6-7-1231.23391% 6-7-141.05263% 6-7-124,0240.50228%
6-8-010.05365% 6-8-000.00000% 6-8-03,0030.06279%
7-0-710.05365% 7-0-700.00000% 7-0-73,4320.07175%
7-1-6120.64378% 7-1-620.52632% 7-1-624,0240.50228%
7-2-5432.30687% 7-2-5143.68421% 7-2-572,0721.50685%
7-3-4603.21888% 7-3-4112.89474% 7-3-4120,1202.51141%
7-4-31126.00858% 7-4-3256.57895% 7-4-3120,1202.51141%
7-5-2814.34549% 7-5-2133.42105% 7-5-272,0721.50685%
7-6-1422.25322% 7-6-151.31579% 7-6-124,0240.50228%
7-7-090.48283% 7-7-020.52632% 7-7-03,4320.07175%
8-0-650.26824% 8-0-620.52632% 8-0-63,0030.06279%
8-1-5170.91202% 8-1-520.52632% 8-1-518,0180.37671%
8-2-4452.41416% 8-2-4133.42105% 8-2-445,0450.94178%
8-3-3904.82833% 8-3-3246.31579% 8-3-360,0601.25571%
8-4-21075.74034% 8-4-2123.15789% 8-4-245,0450.94178%
8-5-1482.57511% 8-5-151.31579% 8-5-118,0180.37671%
8-6-0191.01931% 8-6-020.52632% 8-6-03,0030.06279%
9-0-550.26824% 9-0-520.52632% 9-0-52,0020.04186%
9-1-4271.44850% 9-1-461.57895% 9-1-410,0100.20928%
9-2-3563.00429% 9-2-351.31579% 9-2-320,0200.41857%
9-3-2854.56009% 9-3-2112.89474% 9-3-220,0200.41857%
9-4-1563.00429% 9-4-120.52632% 9-4-110,0100.20928%
9-5-0100.53648% 9-5-010.26316% 9-5-02,0020.04186%
10-0-430.16094% 10-0-430.78947% 10-0-41,0010.02093%
10-1-3160.85837% 10-1-310.26316% 10-1-34,0040.08371%
10-2-2392.09227% 10-2-251.31579% 10-2-26,0060.12557%
10-3-1532.84335% 10-3-120.52632% 10-3-14,0040.08371%
10-4-0180.96567% 10-4-020.52632% 10-4-01,0010.02093%
11-0-330.16094% 11-0-310.26316% 11-0-33640.00761%
11-1-2170.91202% 11-1-210.26316% 11-1-21,0920.02283%
11-2-1201.07296% 11-2-110.26316% 11-2-11,0920.02283%
11-3-0130.69742% 11-3-000.00000% 11-3-03640.00761%
12-0-230.16094% 12-0-200.00000% 12-0-2910.00190%
12-1-1100.53648% 12-1-110.26316% 12-1-11820.00381%
12-2-040.21459% 12-2-000.00000% 12-2-0910.00190%
13-0-100.00000% 13-0-100.00000% 13-0-1140.00029%
13-1-030.16094% 13-1-000.00000% 13-1-0140.00029%
14-0-000.00000% 14-0-000.00000% 14-0-010.00002%

RECOMENDACIONES:
En cuanto a figuras, consideramos como válidas aquellas que tanto en las 1,864 quinielas como en las 380 quinielas han salido en un porcentaje superior al que representan dentro de las 4,782,969 combinaciones posibles, y ademas que se hayan repetido al menos en un 2% de las combinaciones ganadoras. Tambien consideramos válidas aquellas condiciones que se repiten en un 20% o mas de las quinielas ganadoras de las 10 ultimas temporadas.

En Resumen, nuestra recomendacion seria:

Figura 7-4-3 (sale un 6.01% frente a un 2.51%, es decir, la relacion es 2.39 veces superior)
Figura 8-4-2 (sale un 5.74% frente a un 0.94%, es decir, la relacion es 6.10 veces superior)
Figura 8-3-3 (sale un 4.83% frente a un 1.26%, es decir, la relacion es 3.85 veces superior)
Figura 9-3-2 (sale un 4.56% frente a un 0.42%, es decir, la relacion es 10.89 veces superior)
Figura 7-5-2 (sale un 4.35% frente a un 1.51%, es decir, la relacion es 2.88 veces superior)
Figura 6-5-3 (sale un 4.02% frente a un 3.52%, es decir, la relacion es 1.14 veces superior)
Figura 7-3-4 (sale un 3.22% frente a un 2.51%, es decir, la relacion es 1.28 veces superior)
Figura 6-6-2 (sale un 2.52% frente a un 1.76%, es decir, la relacion es 1.43 veces superior)
Figura 8-2-4 (sale un 2.41% frente a un 0.94%, es decir, la relacion es 2.56 veces superior)
Figura 7-2-5 (sale un 2.31% frente a un 1.51%, es decir, la relacion es 1.53 veces superior)

Con estas figuras consideramos como validas un 16.87% de las combinaciones posibles con 14 triples para asegurarnos un 39.97% de las combinaciones que resultaron ganadoras.

William Hill
Movistar


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